Derbyshire regions rank among worst in country for excess deaths – with North and Midlands hardest hit by winter spike

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed a clear north-south divide across England, with figures released on January 10 showing the number of additional deaths is a third higher in northern regions compared to southern.

Over the last eight weeks, deaths in the North were up by 16.7% and 15.3% in the Midlands – compared to 12.1% in the South. This difference is the equivalent of an extra 1,107 northerners and 499 midlanders dying over the last eight weeks, compared to the number that would have died if excess mortality was at the level seen in the south.

In the week ending December 30, the Midlands surged forward with a staggering 27% additional deaths compared to pre-pandemic levels – with figures of 20.6% and 15.5% recorded in the North and South respectively.

The Derbyshire Dales has seen a 33.8% rise in excess deaths over the last two months, when compared to the area’s pre-Covid five-year average – ranking it as the eighth worst region in England for excess deaths.

Concerning figures have also been recorded in Amber Valley, with their 29.6% rise in excess deaths being the 16th biggest in the country.

South Derbyshire has seen a spike of 24.3%, with a 22.5% increase reported in Bolsover – with the former ranked as the 46th worst and the latter the 64th.

In Chesterfield, excess deaths have risen by 10.9% – with figures of 8.3% in North-East Derbyshire and 4.7% in High Peak. None of these local authorities were ranked among the worst 200 regions in the country for excess deaths.

While the official measure of excess mortality used by the ONS in its national statistics compares deaths in 2022 to averages from 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, we have used the pre-pandemic average (2015 to 2019) to avoid distortion caused by the disproportionate impact of Covid deaths in northern regions. The ONS does not publish its own regional comparisons and said it could not comment.

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Chris Thomas, principal health fellow at the Institute for Public Policy Research, said existing regional health inequalities – and the greater strain on services that poorer health can cause – means that northern health systems can feel the strain particularly acutely at times of unprecedented demand.

“We saw that during the Covid-19 pandemic where the places that were most likely to experience high levels of infection or high levels of mortality or where the system was particularly under strain in terms of healthcare tended to be places where health inequalities were higher, which was often places like the North East, the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber.

“What we’ve probably seen is a bit of a reiteration of that trend in the last few weeks while we had that really big infection of the flu and Covid-19 twindemic playing out, so I think it’s fairly likely that the kind of pressures that we’ve seen in the NHS over the last few weeks through the winter are playing into this [excess deaths].”